Author: Craig Peeling, Realtor

Affordability in Canada’s housing market has now been challenged for a full 10 quarters—and for many, the path forward is less about waiting for lower mortgage rates and more about watching home prices and incomes. As we look ahead, most economists believe mortgage rates will hold steady or even rise slightly, putting more weight on price moderation as the key to making your next move possible.

One positive sign: a gradually improving labour market is expected to support household incomes, while slower population growth could ease the pressure on home prices. That said, real estate remains deeply local. I’ve seen firsthand how the market experience in Vancouver or Toronto is fundamentally different from what buyers and sellers face in Calgary or Edmonton right now.

As someone who’s been both a client and a REALTOR®, I know just how personal these decisions are. My commitment is to help you navigate these changing conditions with honesty and genuine care—so you can focus on what truly matters: finding a place that feels like home.

Big changes are on the horizon for Hamilton’s housing landscape. A provincial tribunal has directed the city to expand its urban boundary by 1,600 hectares to meet the needs of residential growth over the next 30 years—overriding the previous freeze on development. This decision opens the door for new communities in areas like Elfrida, White Church Road east of Mount Hope, and Twenty Road West near the airport, with projections suggesting as many as 15,000 people could call the Elfrida area home in the future. While this expansion is intended to support essential land uses, it will also keep the focus on higher-density and missing-middle housing within Hamilton’s current borders. Of course, with growth comes important questions about infrastructure and how development charges will shape these new neighborhoods. The exact locations for expansion will be finalized in a second hearing phase, and even after that, there’s still a journey ahead with subdivision and rezoning approvals before any construction starts. As someone who values transparency and honest guidance, I’m always keeping a close eye on how these changes might impact you and your next move—whether that means finding a new place to call home, or understanding how the evolving landscape could affect your current neighborhood.

Rare opportunity in one of Brantford's most established neighbourhoods. Solid all-brick raised bungalow on a nearly 200-foot lot offering over 2,200 square feet of finished living space, attached garage, two kitchens, in-law potential and exceptional mechanical care throughout. Whether you're looking for a home to enjoy immediately or a property to modernize into something truly special, opportunities like this are becoming increasingly difficult to find.

When we talk about what shapes the price of a new home in Ontario, it's eye-opening to realize that taxes and government charges account for about 36%—that’s more than a third of the total cost sitting outside of the actual building expenses. For many single-family homes, development charges alone have soared past $100,000 in several communities, and with other levies factored in, buyers can be looking at an extra $200,000 just to get their keys. Recently, a joint effort between federal and provincial governments gave municipalities access to additional funding if they agreed to cut residential development charges by 30% to 50% or more, with the requirement that these savings last for at least three years. The impact was immediate: after the HST cut, Ontario saw 8,400 new home sales in the first three months—more than double the 3,600 sales in the same period in previous years. If steps like making the HST rebate and reduced development charges permanent were taken, it could provide the kind of certainty that buyers, builders, and communities need to see real improvements in both affordability and housing supply. As someone who’s helped wonderful people navigate these decisions, I know just how much these changes could mean for families looking to find their next place to call Home.

Vacant property centrally located within proximity to transit, highway access and a long list of amenities.

This week’s flurry of Canadian economic data is giving us plenty to consider, especially if you’re keeping a close eye on the housing market. With new figures on inflation, home sales, and trade all landing at once, we’re seeing renewed debate on whether the central bank will hold rates steady through 2027 or make another move. It’s worth noting that a leading real estate group has just revised its 2026 forecast—now anticipating that national sales will drift slightly lower this year instead of seeing modest growth. For those of us who live and breathe real estate, these shifts matter. We’re also watching a looming mid-Q3 deadline that could expose nearly US$20B in Canadian exports to significant tariffs—an issue still very much in negotiation. Plus, updates on housing starts, retail sales, and lending are in, giving us a clearer picture of where construction, consumer spending, and credit stand. My approach has always been honest and direct, focusing on what these changes really mean for you and your next move—whether you’re buying your first house or planning your next chapter. It’s my privilege to help wonderful people navigate great homes—especially in times of uncertainty.

Hamilton has now seen 10 consecutive quarters of improved affordability—a hopeful trend for those looking to make a move. By late Q2 2026, even though mortgage rates inched up slightly, home prices dipped enough to tip the scales toward better affordability in our city. The typical mortgage payment for a representative home in Hamilton landed at about 58% of the median income, which is still a stretch for many families, but it’s a step in the right direction. It’s worth noting that we’re still more than 14 percentage points above the city’s long-term affordability average—meaning, despite recent progress, local buyers are still facing costs well above what’s historically been normal. These gains are encouraging, but the journey isn’t over yet. The most recent outlook suggests that mortgage rates likely won’t be offering much more relief soon, so steady income growth and sensible home prices will be key to making homeownership more accessible. If you’re navigating these changing conditions, know that my approach—rooted in honesty, experience, and genuine care—means you’ll always have the facts and a steady hand on your side while you find that next place to truly call home.